Skeptico

Medium guesses about serial killer

I wasn’t going to bother with this but The Two Percent Company’s piece yesterday on Allison Dubois changed my mind. In this ridiculous interview headlined Medium describes serial killer, Allison Dubois plays the usual guessing game, pretending to get “psychic” impressions of a serial killer in her home town of Phoenix, although her guesses seem even lamer than normal. Strangely, Phoenix police have not asked Dubois for her help in their investigations. Strange because Dubois claims to have helped catch criminals in the past, and does so regularly on TV – why haven’t they jumped on the chance this time when the killer is in her home town? I’d like to think it’s because the police know what a waste time this fraud’s playing-the-odds guesses would be. For example, get a load of these lame “psychic impressions”:

Dubois believes [the killer] knows local areas by scoping them out

Wow, you mean he doesn’t pick a place he knows nothing about at random?

his victims "are in the wrong place at the wrong time."

Note to any potential victims: if you’re planning to be at the wrong place, make sure it’s not at the wrong time.

I do feel he's getting nervous." She feels "like he's ready to bolt, if he hasn't already."

Well, he’s either bolted or he hasn’t, so that would cover all options. Awesome psychic powers, Allison!

If the killer does leave Arizona before police catch him, Dubois says, "I would look in California if I were them."

If? If? How are the police to know if he leaves Arizona? (And as an aside, is it likely he will leave Arizona after they catch him?) But thanks for the tip about California. Would never have thought of that. It’s only the nearest state to Phoenix. Now, if the psychic could only tell us if he has actually left or not. And where in California.

I see him tucking his hair up in his hat to hide his hair."

Some actual information. But followed by:

A composite sketch police are using shows a man with a hat and long hair, perhaps in dreadlocks.

Although I’m sure Allison received this information psychically. I’m sure she didn’t see the police sketch in the newspaper, oh no.

"I believe (he) was in and out of juvenile (detention) as he was growing up. He didn't have a father in the household. He had a mother he didn't respect but that he, on a strange level, loved and is a little protective of when somebody says something about his mother. It's a love-hate which he has for her, which is why it's easier for him to kill women, more so than men, who would be more of a challenge."

C minus for amateur psychology. Please try to be more original next time.

But as for the Baseline Killer, Dubois says, I think he's been real lucky up till now actually. I think a lot of what he's gotten away with has been luck. But his luck will run out."

Which describes virtually all criminals who have not yet been caught. (And most “psychics” for that matter.)

And that’s it. This is the “Medium” who solves crimes every week on TV (“based on a true story”). The talent confirmed genuine by Gary Schwartz of Arizona University. You’ll note there’s nothing useful like, oh I don’t know, the killer’s name and address. No wonder she has a backlog of 200 murder cases to solve. If this is a demonstration of her skills, her backlog is unlikely to get any smaller.

The interview is credited to someone called Bert Sass who has the title “Special Projects Producer”. This must be a new definition of “special” that means “lame-ass garbage”. He should be ashamed. We know Allison has no shame.

I’m not a phony but I play one on TV

Allison Dubois – worse than you thought!

Yes it’s possible. My opinion of Allison Dubois just got even lower. Read The Two Percent Company’s piece today on Allison – they have a story there from someone who had the misfortune of actually knowing Allison. See how Allison manipulated the story of this woman’s sister’s death to her own ends. Allison has no class and no shame.

More Skeptico on Allison Dubois:

Medium guesses about serial killer

Allison Dubois no help in catching killer

A walking, camera-strutting, fake-ghost-talking joke

Secretary to the dead

Burden of proof

The Two Percent Company on Allison Dubois

Allison Dubois Week

Allison DuBois - Even More of a Hypocrite Than Previously Thought

What gets Michael Behe’s goat?

Last year I wrote that Michael Behe, in sworn testimony, agreed that astrology would be considered a scientific theory if judged by the same standards as he wished Intelligent Design to be judged.   I also wrote that I was unaware of Behe’s astrological sign. Claus Larsen of Skeptic Report just advised me that Behe is a Capricorn (born January 18^th) – the Goat – and suggested I should look into the characteristics of Capricorns and see how they fit Behe.

Astrology online gives the usual list of vague Forer statements that are really too tedious to consider, but I was interested in the lists of likes and dislikes of Capricorns. First we have:

LIKES

Reliability

Professionalism

Knowing what you discuss

Firm Foundations

Purpose

Some problems there, you might think. But it was the dislikes that struck me. It seems to me that, for a Capricorn, he might be in the wrong job:

DISLIKES

Wild Schemes

Fantasies

Go-nowhere jobs

Ignominy

Ridicule

Oh dear, he dislikes fantasies, go-nowhere jobs, ignominy and ridicule? The last nine months must have been pretty miserable for him then.

Not that I believe in any of this. As regular readers know, astrology is a load of arbitrary made up rules that when tested do not work. Still, Behe apparently believes in it, and I’m sure he has studied astrology as assiduously as he studied that other science, you know, intelligent design. So, in light of the above, perhaps he is considering a change of careers. Sure enough, a little further up the page at astrology online, there is a hint of Behe’s future employment prospects:

The wit and flippancy which is characteristic of certain Capricornians may make some turn to entertainment as a career.

I’m sure we all wish him well in his new career in entertainment. Notwithstanding many of us thought that already was his current job.

No point to acupuncture on animals

I was unfortunate enough to read this uncritical article on acupuncture for animals. Along with the usual drivel about improving the flow of qi, it’s been around for thousands of years, it’s been “shown” (how?) to do numerous good things etc etc, we get this misleading old canard:

At least with dogs and cats we know the effects are real and not a result of the mental expectation of improvement.

What they’re getting at is that since animals don’t know what’s going on, any benefit can’t be due to the placebo effect, and so double-blind studies are not necessary to test the efficacy of therapies on animals. They’re actually using this as an argument that altie procedures such as acupuncture have real benefits above placebo, but how do they know there is a benefit? Who determines whether the animal is sick and who determines whether the animal got better? After all, the animal can’t tell you if he feels better or not. The answer is the person supplying the altie remedy is often also the person who decides if the animal improved or not. And that is where the double-blinding is needed – the veterinarian diagnosing the illness, and determining if the treatment worked or not, must be blind to whether real or placebo treatments are given.

People think altie remedies work for a number of reasons, and only one of these is placebo.

They include:

1. Placebo
2. Temporary mood improvements due to the personal nature of the treatment
3. Psychological investment of the patient in the success of the therapy
4. Misdirection
5. Incorrect diagnosis to start with
6. The cyclical nature of the illness (gets worse/gets better/gets worse/gets better…)
7. Other medicines the patient is taking
8. The illness just goes away by itself.

All of the above can apply to humans, and 1 to 4 may provide actual benefits to some people. Animals won’t benefit from items 1 to 3, although items 5 through 8 may make it appear the altie therapy is working. (4 – Misdirection – might provide some minor temporary benefits in pain relief, but not much else.) It is important to remember that there is no benefit to the animal, and this is why the author of this article has it completely backward: altie therapies such as acupuncture, that are mainly placebo, should never be used on animals because animals don’t benefit from the placebo effect. In addition, unlike adult humans, animals don’t get to choose their therapies and so they need protection from bad decisions made by their woo owners.

The randomized double-blind study was designed to control for all the biases listed above. We know that the “great bulk of the randomised controlled trials [of acupuncture] to date do not provide convincing evidence of pain relief over placebo”. We also know it doesn’t matter where you put the needles: all that matters is the person receiving the acupuncture believes the needles are being placed in the special magic places. Even stronger statements could be made against, for example, homeopathy – another useless therapy that is also practiced on animals. Treating sick animals with useless therapies, instead of available evidence based therapies, is nothing but animal cruelty and should never be allowed.

On a lighter note, there was another hard to believe claim in the article:

Believe it or not, during the acupuncture treatment itself, most animals exhibit little or no pain or discomfort. In fact, most of our patients will lie down during a treatment with their owners holding them and take a nap. The treatment itself may last 10 seconds to 30 minutes, with the average treatment being 20 minutes.

For a dog maybe, but a cat would never put up with that kind of nonsense. My cat puts up a fight if I just check to see if her claws need clipping. I can’t imagine she’d sit calmly and let someone stick needles in her for even 10 seconds let alone 30 minutes. And she hasn’t even read the studies. Reference: How to give a pill to a cat and a dog.

Who are these secretive bloggers?

Via Secular Blasphemy I read this article by the deputy editor of the BBC's Newsnight (ironically a blog item), warning bloggers that the BBC reads blog posts about the BBC. Apparently some bloggers have been surprised that people other than their friends can read their blogs, and have reacted badly when some BBC honcho comments on their blog:

I recently came across a comment claiming Jeremy disliked recording his weekly podcast. I posted a response and the blogger seemed appalled - "the BBC's watching us - spooky" was his reply. But if you write something about us on the internet surely I have every right to read it and respond - that's not spooky.

I have to say I find this a little hard to believe. Most bloggers are interested in finding ways to drive more traffic to their site, and if they worry about anything it’s that no one but their friends will read their blogs. Still, it’s good to know BBC writers read what we write about them. Perhaps one of them will read one of my many articles on how BBC science reporting is quackery, with uncritical reporting on acupuncture and the like. Perhaps they will decide to actually read the studies they are reporting on and stop writing headlines such as Acupuncture 'more than a placebo' when the study shows no such thing. Do you think?  No, nor do I really. But I await with interest the BBC reporters’ comments on those posts. BBC: let’s see what you got.

39th Skeptics’ Circle

The 39^th Skeptics' Circle has just been posted at Mike’s Weekly Skeptic Rant. Join Scooby Doo and the gang for a weekend adventure taking in the best skeptical blogging from the past two weeks. You’ll be glad you did.

Adam the Healer

Reader Jake alerted me to last Thursday’s ABC Primetime Live on Adam the DreamHealer – a 19 year old from Canada who claims special healing powers. I decided to watch it to see what this guy was claiming and how ABC dealt with it. The program wasn’t as bad as it might have been. And one part was so (unintentionally) funny it had me howling with laughter. (More of that near the end.) Ultimately though, it was rather sad.

Adam’s story begins around the age of 15, where he claimed he began to experience telekinetic events such as pencils flying into his hands, although apparently no one but Adam actually witnessed these events.  More importantly, it is claimed he cured his Mother of MS. That clearly convinced his family, and his parents now work full time on Adam’s business of lectures, tapes, books etc. (He couldn’t cure his sister’s acne though - “I wasn’t about to waste any energy on a little pimple”. Don’t bother this guy with trivial stuff.) But his fame grew after he cured musician Ronnie Hawkins of “inoperable pancreatic cancer”. He achieved this through a series of long distance treatments (ie he stared at a picture of Hawkins), over eight months, after which, Hawkins’ tumor had gone. Powerful stuff. As further proof we were introduced to a teacher called Linda, who had been suggested to ABC by Adam’s family as a typical success story. Linda had (also) been diagnosed as having “inoperable pancreatic cancer”, and it was claimed her tumors had also “gone”.

The heart of the ABC program was to follow four people who hoped to be healed by Adam. The four were: 14-year-old Lucy, whose knees constantly dislocate to excruciating pain; 22 year old Christina who had a tumor on her lung; Dawn, a champion ballroom dancer with MS; and a veteran of the war in Afghanistan who had suffered a horrible blow to the back of his head with an axe, apparently leaving him unable to move or speak. I’ll return to these four at the end.

We were shown Adam in action at one of his seminars. With infra-red cameras, we could see Adam supposedly manipulating the auras or “quantum holograms” as he calls them of the people in the room. His actions were compared to Tom Cruise’s character in Minority Report, who moved images in this way. To me he looked more like a kid pretending to do some kind of Kung Fu or Jujitsu moves he’d seen on TV. I’m not surprised he wanted the lights out – I don’t think I’d want anyone to see me doing anything as daft as that either. Still, Adam claims to be able to see auras, detect what is wrong with a person and manipulate brainwaves with these techniques:

“As a kid, hide ‘n’ seek was not a game that I enjoyed . . .. I just couldn’t figure out the point of the game. Someone might be hiding behind an object such as a tree, but they would still be visible to me. Their aura would show beyond the tree’s outline. It was as ludicrous as a large man trying to hide behind a broomstick,”

(Snip)

“I look at someone’s picture. Exactly what happens, I really don’t know — I think it’s just something I was born with. All of a sudden, I totally disconnect from everything around me in the room, and I see these images of the person in front of me. And then, from there, I can see what’s wrong with the person. When I change around these images in front of me, it influences the person’s health,”

(Source – my bold)

And according to Adam’s own webpage, there have been scientific studies with EEG:

A total of 4 EEG brain maping (sic) studies were recently carried out on 4 different patients. These are all certified scientific methods of measuring brain wave activity. All 4 showed sigificant (sic) brain wave activity once Adam connected as if doing a healing.

I’m sure any one of those three skills would qualify for a certain conjuror’s Million Dollar Prize, but for this program we had to make do with ABC’s John Quiñones. He wasn’t that bad in the job. First, Adam was filmed “visualizing” what was wrong with a couple of people. We saw him diagnosing one woman as having back and shoulder problems. The woman said Adam was “right on the shoulder” problem (she didn’t mention anything wrong with her back), but had missed her lung and breast cancer.  Quite a big thing to miss, you’d have thought. Adam had the explanation rationalization ready – what he sees isn’t what the person thinks is most important. Funny, I’d have thought it important that “I can see what’s wrong with the person” would include cancer if it were there, but one out of three counts, apparently. Next, Quiñones was asked to pick someone at random for Adam to diagnose. Quiñones did so, and Adam watched this woman walk from her seat in the room, up the aisle, up the stairs and across the stage – and correctly diagnosed she had problems with her knee. Luckily she didn’t have cancer as well!

Adam attempted to replicate his EEG successes, this time with Quiñones as the subject. Quiñones was fitted up with 19 electrodes to his head, while Adam attempted to change Quiñones’ brainwaves. The result, unlike the successes claimed on Adam’s website, was "inconclusive". (Translation – it didn’t work.) Again, Adam had the explanation – the other people had had something wrong with them that Adam was trying to fix. (Note: that’s not what it says on his website – see my bold in the cite above.) Well, of course. I’m sure it couldn’t possibly have been due to the “independent EEG expert neurologist” hired by ABC, or what appeared to be some kind of blinding (it looked like Quiñones didn’t know when Adam was doing his pretend Jujitsu moves in the next room).

Whatever the reason, it looks like Randi’s million could be safe for a while longer.

No program like this would be complete without the obligatory reference to Quantum Mechanics as an explanation for all the magic woo we have been seeing. Fortunately we were treated to Bob Park telling us “physicists shudder when they hear this”, along with some other gems. I’m sure that wouldn’t have convinced the woos watching, but it was good to hear anyway. Park was pretty good in his two or three brief appearances.

But the truly hilarious piece was the explanation of where Adam got all his scientific knowledge. If you didn’t see the program, I promise you that I did not make up what you are about to read. Asked how Adam is so sure what he does is real, he recounted how, when he was 16 he had a dream telling him to go to an island to meet a large black bird. Apparently this dream impressed his parents so much that the next day they went with him to the island named in the dream. (What understanding parents!) There, on what appeared to be acres of forest or wild land, Adam found (drum roll) – A BIRD. Amazing! What are the odds? It gets better. Adam’s parents were so impressed with this bird they took a picture of it (get this):

“as it locked eyes with Adam and … imparted to him complex scientific information about the universe”.

Note, not just any kind of information – “scientific” information. And not the regular stuff - “complex” scientific information if you please. Who knew a random blackbird would be an expert in Quantum Physics?

Don’t believe it? Don’t have to – here’s the picture they took of the bird to prove it: 

(My caption.)

I have to admit, it took me fully a couple of minutes after that before I could stop laughing enough to hear what followed.

The conclusion was less mirthful though. We revisited our four hopefuls. The 14 year old with the terribly painful knee problem had to have emergency surgery to repair the bone that had not healed properly after an earlier surgery. Her final comment, “Adam healing didn’t help the pain at all” was heartbreaking.

The MS sufferer was shown doing a (slow) dance routine, and appeared to be doing well. But MS:

…is cyclical and unpredictable […] Spontaneous recovery from symptoms can occur and last for months or years.

The 22 year old with the tumor on her lung discovered that the “tumors barely grew at all”, which presumably means they had grown a bit. They hadn’t gone anyway, and it wasn’t clear what other medications she was taking that might have helped.

The army vet was the sorriest case. He was clearly much sicker than Adam was used to seeing and I actually felt embarrassed for him as he went through his Kung Fu moves in front of the sad immobile man in the wheelchair. Adam asked if he could feel anything – “most people feel tingling in their head” he suggested helpfully – but there was no response. Adam seemed to blame skeptical people in the room (read “doctors”, “nurses”), for this failure. At the very end of the program we were told the vet had been able to say one word (this was some time later, presumably), and his wife (I presume she was) was convinced Adam had something to do with this. Of course, it is impossible to know what would be the situation if he had never seen Adam, but the likelihood is things would not have been much different.

It gets worse. Remember the teacher we met at the beginning whose cancer had vanished?  Well, at the end of the show we learned her cancer was back and the woman had started radiation treatment. And remember Ronnie Hawkins? Well apparently he might never have had cancer in the first place. It was revealed he had had three biopsies but all had been “inconclusive”.

People most likely think Adam’s healing methods work for the same reasons people usually think woo therapies work, namely:

• Placebo
• Misdirection
• The cyclical nature of the illness (gets worse/gets better/gets worse/gets better…)
• Incorrect diagnosis to start with
• Temporary mood improvements due to the personal nature of the treatment
• Psychological investment of the patient in the success of the therapy
• Other medicines the patient is taking
• The illness just goes away by itself.

We saw most of those in this program.

Of course, if Adam really could see auras, diagnose illness by looking at pictures, alter brainwaves – this could easily be demonstrated in scientific tests. It will be interesting to see if this is ever done by independent testers. I predict now that it never will be, and this is a pity, because if Adam really had the abilities he claims, they should be studied. I also predict he will never apply for Randi’s million dollar challenge, although someone with these skills would ace it. However, do I predict there will be reports of further successes in scientific tests on Adam’s DreamHealer web page. Such results, not independently verified or replicated, will unfortunately be worthless.

I anticipate the objections to my comments. What’s the harm? Perhaps the power of positive thought Adam instills might bring a cure. Well, I’m not convinced that the power of positive thought can make much difference in serious illnesses such as cancer. For example, this summary of 26 studies finds no such link. That said, I accept that there might be some benefit with some illnesses. But you have to set that against the false hope and ultimate disappointment given to people such as 14 year old Lucy. Does their ultimate let down and despair counter any alleged benefits received by others? And what about those, like 22 year old Christina, who decided not to proceed with surgery at least partly based on her faith in Adam? What if she gets worse, but the surgery she refused could have saved her life? And what about the damage done in general to the ability of people to think critically, when they are taught it’s OK to believe in fairy tales? In my opinion, magic therapies such as this do more harm than good, for the above reasons. I recognize this is just an opinion though, and some may disagree. I certainly wouldn’t want to tell the brave and hopeful wife of the Afghan war vet that she believes in fairy tales - let her keep her faith if it gives her some comfort. But I can’t help thinking she will ultimately feel let down.

Maine files suit against Gentle Wind

Remember the Gentle Wind Project – sellers of magic plastic cards that you hold in your hands to achieve “physical and emotional balance” in the face of traumatic events? Well the Maine Attorney General's Office has filed a lawsuit against them:

The Gentle Wind Project designs and sells what it calls "healing instruments" that it said solve a variety of physical and emotional ailments.

Others said the group is a scam.

The attorney general's office accused the group of falsely claiming that their products had healing qualities and of considering the income from their sale as charitable donations rather than sales proceeds.

Prosecutors want the Gentle Wind Project to liquidate its assets, pay the state's legal fees and refund anyone who bought items between 2000 and the present.

“Others said the group is a scam”. Those “others” would include me, of course. I wish the Maine Attorney General's Office success in their lawsuit.

Who farted and made the Giant Raccoon?

An unusual headline, admittedly. Bear with me. First though, if anyone needs to know what to cite as a comprehensive debunking of Ann Coulter’s ludicrous anti-evolution shtick, they could go to Talk Reason or (via Respectful Insolence), to this extremely detailed rebuttal of literally dozens of Coulter’s claims, in Media Matters.

I’m just going to write about one of Coulter’s alleged arguments, one I hadn’t heard before, as reported by Orac and Media Matters:

How about this: Imagine a giant raccoon passed gas and perhaps the resulting gas might have created the vast variety of life we see on Earth. […]  That's basically how the argument for evolution goes.

At first I thought this was a ridiculous Straw Man of evolution, but it appears Coulter thinks this is a parody – her equivalent of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (FSM) parody of Intelligent Design. But she has it ass-backward: it’s actually another parody if ID. Take the FSM letter (paragraph 2), replace a few words, and you get:

Let us remember that there are multiple theories of Intelligent Design. I and many others around the world are of the strong belief that the universe was created by a giant raccoon passing gas. It was He who created all that we see and all that we feel.

Agreed, I would prefer to be “touched by his noodly appendage”, but I can’t help it if Coulter has an anal fixation.  Coulter’s Giant Racoon Theory is clearly a perfect analogy for intelligent design: the variety of life we observe on Earth was created by an intelligent designer (giant raccoon) who used an unknown method (farted) at an unknown time (probably at night – raccoons are nocturnal) for an unknown reason (perhaps some dodgy crayfish). Someone should start a web page.

But it gets better (or worse, if you’re Ann Coulter). As Orac pointed out, it suffers from another of the deficiencies of ID, namely: who created the designer (giant raccoon)? Because if life on Earth is so complex it must have been created by a designer (giant farting raccoon), then who designed the designer (who farted and made the giant farting raccoon)? To mix my metaphors, it’d be turtles all the way down.

And apparently Dembski thinks this is a problem for evolution, not ID.

I’ve often wondered if Coulter really is as stupid as she seems or if she’s just cynically milking the ignorance of her fans to make a buck. If she can’t see that this oh-so-clever analogy of hers is really a spoof of ID then I have to conclude: yes, she really is that stupid.  Dembski too.  Hard to believe, but I think we finally have the proof.

Religious leaders forget their differences

Here’s a heartwarming story. Amongst the age-old strife in Israel, religious officials from the Muslim, Jewish and Christian communities have buried their differences and come together in a never before seen union, for a common purpose.  What could that be, you ask, what common cause could have brought these diverse people together?  Well obviously – to ban a gay parade. Get a load of the peace and love that is the united voice of religions:

"I promise there's going to be bloodshed - not just on that day, but for months afterward," declared New York Rabbi Yehuda Levin, a representative of the Rabbinical Alliance of America.

…

"If gays will dare approach the Temple Mount during the parade, they will do so over our dead bodies," said MK Ibrahim Sarsur (United Arab List- Ta'al).

…

"Go send them to parade somewhere else," said one Sufi cleric. "That place can become Sodom, and God can smite them there."

And God bless you too. Isn’t it great that all the usual hatred and violence for each other, inspired by their different sky-fairies, can just this once be put aside to focus on what is really important – stopping queers from marching. God must be proud.

Trapped In the Closet – Emmy Nomination

According to MSNBC, South Park’s Scientology episode (that was pulled because of complaints from Tom Cruise), has been nominated for an Emmy for Best Animated Program.

Personally I thought the episode concentrated too much on the Tom Cruise is gay rumors, and not enough about the bait and switch tactics that get the unsuspecting hooked on Scientology. Still, it did expose and poke fun at the cult’s Xenu creation myth, so any more publicity it gets would be good. The awards will be held on Saturday August 19^th, 2006.

But... I had that episode banned.

Skeptics’ Circle

The 38^th Skeptics' Circle has just been posted at Skeptic Rant.   Click the link to read the best skeptical blogging from the past two weeks.

New Study Says No Vaccines-Autism Link

Via Autism Diva I learn of this study just published in the journal Pediatrics. The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence of pervasive developmental disorder (PDD), which includes autism, and compare this with cumulative exposure to both thimerosal and MMR vaccines. The authors surveyed 28,000 children born from 1987 to 1998. Children with PDD were identified by a special needs team.

What they actually found was that children who had had no exposure to thimerosal actually had a higher degree of PDD. No association to PDD was found with the MMR vaccine. From the abstract (all quotes are with my bold):

The prevalence of pervasive developmental disorder in thimerosal free birth cohorts was significantly higher than that in thimerosal-exposed cohorts (82.7 of 10 000 vs 59.5 of 10 000). Using logistic regression models of the prevalence data, we found no significant effect of thimerosal exposure used either as a continuous or a categorical variable. Thus, thimerosal exposure was unrelated to the increasing trend in pervasive developmental disorder prevalence.

The authors conclude that the increased prevalence of PDD is due to broadening diagnostic criteria and increased awareness. If you remember, this is the explanation that Bobby Kennedy called “a theory that seems questionable at best, given that most of the new cases of autism are clustered within a single generation of children”. Well, it’s hard to see what other conclusion could be drawn from this study. From the paper again:

During the 12 years encompassed by our study, thimerosal exposure before age 2 of each birth cohort changed several times and ranged from nil to a high value of 225 μg. This provided a unique opportunity to test the relationship of ethylmercury exposure with rates of PDDs, free of a known problem of vaccine safety studies when high rates of exposure in populations, and therefore low variability in exposure, constrain the data and limit the opportunity to detect effects.⁶³ No association between thimerosal levels treated either continuously or categorically with PDD rates could be found in our study. In fact, it was remarkable that the PDD rates were at their highest value in birth cohorts that were thimerosal free, providing a clear and convincing message on the lack of an association. The results were robust and held true when various analyses were conducted to evaluate the potential impact of misclassification on exposure and diagnosis. Within each period of medium, high, or nil exposure, the same trend toward a steady increase in PDD rate was observed, demonstrating total independence of the 2 variables.

The authors also address one of the mercury-causes-autism lobby’s criticisms of other studies that have also shown no link, namely that these other studies were in countries with lower exposure to thimerosal or lower rates of PDD:

Previous negative studies, especially those conducted in European countries, have sometimes been criticized on the account that either the rates of PDDs were not as high as those in North America, that the cumulative exposure to thimerosal was much lower than that attained in the United States in the 1990s, or both. This study avoids both pitfalls and is, therefore, very informative for the North American public. In addition, the rate of exposure varied from nil to very high levels of vaccine-derived ethylmercury, allowing us to test for effects along the full range of exposure and to detect possible threshold effects as well. All of the results were negative.

Of course, don’t expect this study to convince the religious mercury-causes-autism groups. From a (pretty good) BBC article on the study we find:

Jackie Fletcher, from campaign group Jabs, a support network for parents who believe their children have been damaged by vaccines, said the study still did not prove there was not a link.

Well, proving a universal negative is always difficult, but with one more seemingly well run study finding no link when you would expect to find one if it were there, haven’t we passed the point when it becomes perverse to insist there is a link?

Edited to add:

Two more excellent reads today on this subject. Respectful Insolence has a more detailed write-up about this study, along with an examination of some of the usual smear tactics used by the mercury-causes-autism group SafeMinds. Left Brain/Right Brain has a further perspective on SafeMinds hypocritical ad hominems, and insight on where they might be headed in their future mercury claims.

Advice to a Medical Student

I just love yesterday’s post at The Second Sight - Words to a Potential Medical Student. Some samples:

Before you enrol for that medical course, consider carefully whether it's the best path for your life. Perhaps complementary medicine is actually a better way to go, with many clear advantages...

The course is shorter. Never mind years of study and internship, you could become an aura healer in a weekend.

…

Profits are higher. If you're a homeopath, you can continue to make your remedies from a small amount of the original for all eternity. If you're a naturopath you can just mark your supplements up at high rates.

All so true. As is my favorite:

More spare time. Since the tenets of complementary medicine never change, you don't have to worry about keeping up with the latest medical research, new drugs and new procedures. The stuff you'll learn on your course will be thousands of years old and hasn't changed at all in all that time.

Exactly. As I wrote here, in alternative medicine no errors are ever corrected and nothing changes for the simple reason that no one ever critically tests woo therapies to see if they even contain errors. Errors are a permanent feature of those beliefs. Certainly, there are never any new discoveries to keep up with.

Read the rest at The Second Sight link – I only wish I’d thought of it first.

Astrologers did not predict Sept 11

I got an off-topic comment to my Astrology Challenge last week. The commenter clearly thought he had demonstrated astrology is real because he thinks an astrologer predicted the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Of course, no one predicted any such thing with astrology. Still, we should take a look at the claim in the linked article entitled Prophets of doom:

In June 2000, Lynne Palmer, a 69-year-old Las Vegas resident, published her Astrological Almanac for 2001 (Star Bright Publishers). On page 95 of the book, buried among advice on the best days to go to the movies and worst days to lend people money, Palmer had written, in an odd combination of the obvious and the prophetic: "Avoid terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001."

I’ll come back to that in a minute. But before I do, a little further down the article is a comment that I find more revealing about the true nature and value of astrology for predicting future events. The quote is from Robert Hand, the professional astrologer who told me last April that if I wanted to know how the rules of astrology were derived I was going to have to figure it out myself (ie this professional astrologer had no idea where the rules of astrology came from). In this latest article Hand (unintentionally) reveals that astrology did not predict 9/11:

"Only one person predicted the date of the attacks, and that was Lynne Palmer," says veteran astrologer Robert Hand, a relatively highbrow practitioner of the art. "I don’t know how she did it. Things looked chaotic, but I could not have foreseen September 11. I looked and looked and I don’t know how anyone could have predicted it to the day."

(My bold.)

Think about that comment for a bit. Can you imagine a scientist saying he had no idea how a fellow scientist arrived at a valid conclusion? Such an idea would be absurd because in science, the method would be known and the results (if valid) could be replicated. Top astrologer Hand – even with the benefit of hindsight – can’t see how Palmer predicted 9/11. If you needed proof that Palmer didn’t predict 9/11 with astrology, surely this is it from Robert Hand himself?

Fortunately we don’t have to rely just on Hand’s view: we can go to TruthOrFiction for a deconstruction of what Palmer really did:

Palmer's book is an exhaustive astrological guide that lists nearly 500 different categories of activity and thousands of dates that ought to be avoided. It advises the best days for everything from cutting cloth to having surgery.

Under the category of "Avoid: Terrorist Attacks" she listed more than 130 dates in 2001.

For September, she listed 16 dates for avoiding terrorist attacks.

(My bold.)

It’s the scattergun approach – make enough guesses and some are bound to turn up correct. Mind you, Palmer’s approach is a bit wild even by the normal standards of this kind of guessing – 16 dates in September and 130 in the year for avoiding terrorist attacks? That’s so blatant I’m surprised she doesn’t blush. But it gets worse. Get a load of this:

Just out of curiosity, we looked up "Avoid Travel by Air." She listed 13 dates in September to be avoided. September 11 was not one of them.

Need I say more? Honestly, anyone who thinks Lynne Palmer’s claim validates astrology simply isn’t interested in the truth. Perhaps they should listen to Robert Hand. From the original Prophets of Doom link:

"Astrology is not a science," says Hand. "It’s a craft. It has no solid foundation.

Astrology “has no solid foundation”. What he means (confirmed by several other astrologers), is that astrology was just made up.  For once I can agree wholeheartedly with an astrologer. It begs the question though – how does he justify practicing as one and (presumably) charging money for his services?