Medium guesses about serial killer

I wasn’t going to bother with this but The Two Percent Company’s piece yesterday on Allison Dubois changed my mind. In this ridiculous interview headlined Medium describes serial killer, Allison Dubois plays the usual guessing game, pretending to get “psychic” impressions of a serial killer in her home town of Phoenix, although her guesses seem even lamer than normal. Strangely, Phoenix police have not asked Dubois for her help in their investigations. Strange because Dubois claims to have helped catch criminals in the past, and does so regularly on TV – why haven’t they jumped on the chance this time when the killer is in her home town? I’d like to think it’s because the police know what a waste time this fraud’s playing-the-odds guesses would be. For example, get a load of these lame “psychic impressions”:

Dubois believes [the killer] knows local areas by scoping them out

Wow, you mean he doesn’t pick a place he knows nothing about at random?

his victims "are in the wrong place at the wrong time."

Note to any potential victims: if you’re planning to be at the wrong place, make sure it’s not at the wrong time.

I do feel he's getting nervous." She feels "like he's ready to bolt, if he hasn't already."

Well, he’s either bolted or he hasn’t, so that would cover all options. Awesome psychic powers, Allison!

If the killer does leave Arizona before police catch him, Dubois says, "I would look in California if I were them."

If? If? How are the police to know if he leaves Arizona? (And as an aside, is it likely he will leave Arizona after they catch him?) But thanks for the tip about California. Would never have thought of that. It’s only the nearest state to Phoenix. Now, if the psychic could only tell us if he has actually left or not. And where in California.

I see him tucking his hair up in his hat to hide his hair."

Some actual information. But followed by:

A composite sketch police are using shows a man with a hat and long hair, perhaps in dreadlocks.

Although I’m sure Allison received this information psychically. I’m sure she didn’t see the police sketch in the newspaper, oh no.

"I believe (he) was in and out of juvenile (detention) as he was growing up. He didn't have a father in the household. He had a mother he didn't respect but that he, on a strange level, loved and is a little protective of when somebody says something about his mother. It's a love-hate which he has for her, which is why it's easier for him to kill women, more so than men, who would be more of a challenge."

C minus for amateur psychology. Please try to be more original next time.

But as for the Baseline Killer, Dubois says, I think he's been real lucky up till now actually. I think a lot of what he's gotten away with has been luck. But his luck will run out."

Which describes virtually all criminals who have not yet been caught. (And most “psychics” for that matter.)

And that’s it. This is the “Medium” who solves crimes every week on TV (“based on a true story”). The talent confirmed genuine by Gary Schwartz of Arizona University. You’ll note there’s nothing useful like, oh I don’t know, the killer’s name and address. No wonder she has a backlog of 200 murder cases to solve. If this is a demonstration of her skills, her backlog is unlikely to get any smaller.

The interview is credited to someone called Bert Sass who has the title “Special Projects Producer”. This must be a new definition of “special” that means “lame-ass garbage”. He should be ashamed. We know Allison has no shame.

I’m not a phony but I play one on TV

Comments

[Infophile]

Well, she did give some new "information" in that he only has a single mother. The problem is, first of all, how common is that today? And secondly, as you pointed out, any amateur psychologist could point to that as a reasonable explanation.

I've gotta show my parents all this evidence. They still watch that stupid show thinking it's based on a true story. (It may be truthy, but not facty.)

[Big Al]

As for "why he prefers to attack women", the fact is that serial killers almost exclusively kill in line with their sexual preferences - heterosexual serial killers slaughter women or girls and homosexual ones murder men or boys.

I, too found the "wrong place at the wrong time" quote ludicrous and laughable. The opposite would have been "He'd only have killed her if she hadn't been there, or if she'd arrived after he left."

The whole thing was a morass of glib generalisations. I am glad the police haven't bothered to waste their time on Ms. Dubois' nonsense. I trust they prefer to put their faith in Luminol, PCR, behavioural profiling and other aids and disciplines that prove their validity and their worth again and again.

In the case of the "Mad Bomber", the profiler made a huge number of detailed predictions about the perpetrator, including that he was a Slav, a Catholic in his 50s, a skilled mechanic from Connecticut, and that he was likely to flare up at work if criticised.

The kicker was that he predicted that when caught, the man would be wearing a double-breasted suit, buttoned up whatever the weather.

When the police, aided by the profile, went to interview George Metesky and asked him to accompany them, he came out of his house in a buttoned-up double-breasted suit.

All the other predictions were correct too, and they helped lead the police direct to the bomber - not just "true after the event" like Alison's vague visions.

The bombings took place in the 50s, before forensic profiling was even thought of, and the relevent psychologist justified ALL of his predictions before the event.

If the psychologist had been on the wrong lines, his predictions were so many and so detailed that he houldn't possibly have weaselled himself out of the situation. More than this, he convinced the police to publicise the profile, saying the bomber would be likely to respond to it - can't see Alison doing that!

Check out

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Metesky#Predictions

for details of this fascinating case. There's prediction I will believe in - based on logic and reason rather than woo philosophy.

[Rush Fire Mine Gold]

Off topic post deleted by Skeptico.

[Jim Anderson]

In Unholy Messenger, Stephen Singular recounts how a psychic was absolutely certain that the BTK killer was hiding out in a barn in Iowa. No word on what happened to that psychic's street cred when Dennis Rader was arrested. In Kansas.

[Big Al]

Ah, c'mon, he was pretty close - the initial letter of the predicted state was only two letters away from the correct one, and the number of letters LIKEWISE displaced by two.

"Dennis" has two identical letters. So does "Rader". Kansas has FOUR, one for each name!

Barn=4
Iowa=4

Dennis=6
Kansas=6

You see, the police are just so damn LITERAL; they ought to be able to see through to the essential truth in the psychic's work.

I'm sure any self-respecting psychic or numerologist would be able to come up with some significant "hits", after a bit of head-scratching.

[Ron Zeno]

Sigh. I guess it's time once again to call upon the infallable random word generator to help these poor, pathetic "psychics":

Knife, ark, herb, composer, record, cup, capsule, chain, rock, horoscope!

[Big Al]

Shame on you, Ron. Don't you know there's no such thing as a random word? They're all plucked from the cosmic group consciousness, or Ramtha, or the Akashic Record or whatever the infallible source of knowledge is this week.

Any half-way "competent" astrologer or psychic detective can twist any word they used into a "hit", even if they were a million miles from the truth with a literal reading.

[attydave]

I'm getting something with and H or maybe a T and definitely feminine . . . definitely a woman. Yes, that's it, the HOT MS. Arquette, that's the reason Medium is such a popular show. I'm predicting, I'm getting yes it's coming to me, another banner season for the show with the HOT blond who was in the Linquini Incident . . . oh dang, I'm not a psychic afterall.

So, Allison's generalizations are pretty general. I haven't yet seen her doing the the psychic scrabble game like Edwards and VanPraagh . . . is it just me or does she play that game too?