According to this CNN report, Phoenix police believe they have captured the “Baseline Killer”:
Police said Thursday they have caught the Baseline Killer, the gunman responsible for nine slayings that spread terror across the Phoenix area for nearly a year.
Police Chief Jack Harris said investigators are recommending that Mark Goudeau, a 42-year-old construction worker who has been in jail since September, be charged with 71 counts, including nine murders -- most of them random shootings committed on the street at night.
Of course, Goudeau has not faced trial yet and deserves the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. Still, we can say two things for sure, namely:
- The police believe they have a strong case against him, and
- Celebrity Phoenix “psychic” Allison Dubois had nothing to do with catching this man. In fact, the CNN report cites “a tip from the public”, not psychic powers, as leading them to Goudeau.
Not that Dubois didn’t try to make a preemptive strike. As I wrote in July, Dubois made several vague guesses (excuse me, gave psychic impressions) about the killer, none of which were of any use, and most (as far as I can tell), were completely wrong. For example:
Dubois said: “the Baseline Killer is not from Arizona”
But: “Goudeau was born Sept. 6, 1964… and grew up in a Phoenix neighborhood near 12th Street and Southern Avenue.
Last time I looked, Phoenix was in Arizona. Dubois 0 for 1.
Dubois said: “he's ready to bolt, if he hasn't already… I would look in California if I were [the police]”
But: Goudeau was caught in Phoenix.
Of course, Dubois didn’t say anything so definite or falsifiable as “he has moved to California”. She phrased it so that wherever he was found her “impression” would fit. However, it would seem unlikely for this married man with family connections in Phoenix to run to California. In any case, Dubois’ “information” about him being “ready to bolt” was clearly wrong and of no use to the police. Dubois 0 for 2.
Dubois said: “He didn't have a father in the household.”
But: Older brother Oscar told The Republic that their upbringing was uneventful, at times idyllic. There was no violence in the house growing up, he said, although he admitted that their father was a strict disciplinarian.
Dubois 0 for 3. Admittedly the report says his parents divorced, but the above comment directly contradicts there being no father around when he was growing up. And that’s doubly true when we look at the next of Dubois’ “impressions”:
Dubois said: “He had a mother he didn't respect but that he, on a strange level, loved and is a little protective of when somebody says something about his mother. It's a love-hate which he has for her… “
But: “An older brother said [Goudeau’s Mother] died in 1976, when Goudeau was 12…”
Dubois missed his Mother dying when he was a child. Dubois 0 for 4. This is my favorite:
Dubois said: “I see [the killer] tucking his hair up in his hat to hide his hair."
But CNN says: “Police have said the killer… wore disguises, which included a wig of dreadlocks and a fisherman's hat.”
See the picture – not much hair to tuck up into his hat. Of course, he could have recently cut it, but I’m going to bet he always wears his hair this short. I could be wrong, but I have a very strong feeling I’m not. (Call it a psychic impression if you like.) Now, I’m sure Dubois wouldn’t have read the reports of the dreadlocks and the hat, and tried to make her psychic impressions fit this description, oh no. She used psychic powers, I’m sure. But she was still wrong and still no help to the police. Dubois 0 for 5.
Dubois said: “[The killer] was in and out of juvenile (detention) as he was growing up.
But: although Goudeau has been in jail, trouble didn’t begin for Goudeau until “1982, when he was 18. He and one of his brothers were accused of raping a young woman.”
So no juvenile trouble at all – nothing until he was 18. Dubois saw nothing of his adult crimes or the 13 years he spent in adult jail. More completely wrong and worse than useless information from Dubois. Dubois 0 for 6.
Did she get anything right? Well, she did say the killer knew the area well and that his luck would run out. Whoopie doo!
Now might be a good time to remind everyone of the TV program “Medium”, which features a character called Allison Dubois who lives in Phoenix and solves crimes every week using psychic powers. I watched this program a few times (as a service to my readers – so you won’t have to), and I can report that this TV “Allison Dubois” not only sees exact names and/or faces of people involved in crimes, exact locations of evidence (for example – exactly where a gun was hidden), but also has conversations with dead people – including, at times, murder victims. And I’m talking complete sentences – questions asked and answered in detail. None of this “I’m getting a J connection” drivel you see on Larry King. Did I say she solves crimes each week that would otherwise have been unsolved, using only her psychic powers? I did?
I must stress again that police do sometimes arrest the wrong person and that Mark Goudeau should be considered innocent of all these crimes until proven guilty. I just ask you to remember the above analysis of what Dubois said compared with the actuality, when and if Dubois ever claims that her lame “impressions” were right, and whenever you read of her repeated claims that she helps the police solve crimes. One thing I do know – if Goudeau was innocent of these crimes, the TV “Allison Dubois” would quickly prove him innocent and lead police to the real killer. Over to you, real Allison Dubois.
Other reading:
The Two Percent Company’s Allison Dubois week.
CSICOP on How Not to Test Mediums.
September 8, 2007 – Update
Goudeau found guilty on 19 counts of sexual assault.
Last summer the Sacramento Bee ran a credulous puff piece on Dubois. I sent the newspaper's public editor (ombudsman) an e-mail complaining about the story's lack of journalistic standards. His response was that it was "entertainment" and not meant to be taken seriously. Really infuriating.
My write-up: The medium is the message
Posted by: TonyB | December 09, 2006 at 05:03 PM
I live in Sacramento and remember the piece you refer to TonyB (and it was kind of apalling, certainly not presented as an entertainment piece as I recall, had it been I would have had no problems with it).
I'd be lying if I said that I'm completely skeptical of all claims psychic phenomena. I have my own personal theories on the matter and don't exactly believe or disbelieve in the possibility. The key word being possibility, maybe it's something that will happen in the future, I don't really know or care beyond playing what if for story writing purposes.
My take boils down to the idea that if there are any legit psychic types (including anything generally held under the banner of ESP such as telekenesis) 1) I doubt they'd volunteer for any government or academic studies if they've seen the same movies I have (ie fear of being dissected can be a powerful motivational tool) so it's no wonder that if such people do exist they haven't been proven legit scientifically and 2) I really, really doubt that any of them are making their name in the world by choosing psychic as a profession. Again, assuming the ezxistence for the purposes of argument, I'd bet anyone with such abialities is very good at staying below the proverbial radar. Basically if someone claims to be psychic, they aren't (even if psychics exist) simply because it seems to me it would be bloody stupid to own up to.
All of that said, Dubois and others like her are truly a peice of work, capitalizing on the grief and fear of others as they do. I think I found the discussions originally through a link on this site, but some former friends of hers had quite a lot to say about her book and "predictions" she'd made in the past and discussed in the book. Pretty much confirmed my already low opinion of her. Makes me wonder how her husband (a scientist) believes in her "gift."
Sadly the show on NBC about her is actually kind of entertaining, which I'm sure wins her more followers all the time. I just hope that even those that actively believe in psychics realize that it's still fiction. Even if I gave Dubois the benefit of the doubt in regards to her so called abilities, I'd have to assume (being a rabid TV connosieur who, therefore, knows how the industry works) that a lot of creative liscence had been taken with the actual stories and characters on the show.
Is it kind of weird that I like the show and yet kind of despise from a distance the woman it's supposed to be based on? Well yes I suppose it is. Compartmetalization is the word of the day I guess.
Posted by: mouse | December 10, 2006 at 11:52 AM
Are you kidding, mouse? If I had real abilities like that, I'd be knocking down the nearest university's doors, demanding to be tested and proven; hell, I'd even let them draw some blood, or take small tissue samples, MRI's, EEG's, whatever they wanted (aside from vivisection or dissection, of course!). Then I'd go win Randi's million and give most of it to various charities.
Then again, I (probably) haven't seen any of these movies that you've seen, and I don't really distrust the government that much anyway. Most of the apparent evil that I've seen from the government turns out to really be incompetence, ignorance, or plain old stupidity.
Posted by: Nes | December 10, 2006 at 02:01 PM
I guess I just saw Firestarter a few too many times as a child. Heh.
Still, you bring up a good point about the Randi's million issue. I would imagine that if someone wanted to claim that money but remain anonymous to the public at large for safety reasons, Randi would be amenable (I don't know the man personally, I'm just guessing based on the wording of the challenge).
Another issue with proving something like this is the apparent assumption that such powers could be controlled at all (which is a necessity for every scientifically laid out plan for testing such phenomena that I've ever read about).
Now admiteddly I partake of a lot of fiction that has "psi power" type elments in it (comics, games and movies for example) so it's defintiely am idea I have from that type of story, and fiction does not reality make. But it's always seemed plausible to me that a lack of control could be a legitimate issue if any real psychic types existed. Like it couldn't be turned on just because a person wanted to use it. Which would make testing difficult. But again, that's assuming the idea has any validity.
Regarding the government, I personally see a lot of greed and that I distrust immensely.
Posted by: mouse | December 11, 2006 at 12:03 AM
Oh, good point, I forgot the greed, though that could arguably be put in the evil category (I did leave some room for actual evil). I also forgot the potential uncontrollable aspect. That would make it difficult to test. Though I think you'd still be able to do better than chance; if not, what's the point in having it or believing in it at all?
I love fantasy in general myself. I read Firestarter way back in Jr. High, though I don't remember much of it. The Shining was a favorite of mine, and it scared the crap out of me, at least until I figured out that the stuff in that book didn't happen in real life (so far as I could tell).
I think part of the reason I like fantasy so much is because the real world (apparently) doesn't operate in that way. I don't see rotting naked dead chicks in the bathtub, no topiaries have tried to attack me, and we don't get headlines in the newspapers like "Ogres Invade New York City!", "Telekinetic Psychic Immobilizes Crook Until Police Arrive!", or "Reiki Practitioner Heals 3rd Degree Burns; Leaves Skin Unblemished!"
Well, in the Weekly World News, maybe...
Posted by: Nes | December 11, 2006 at 03:58 PM
Nes, aren't you from Onett, Eagleland? Didn't you get headlines like that all the time back in 199X?
Posted by: Bronze Dog | December 11, 2006 at 08:06 PM
To be honest, I kind of hope this isn't the same Ness, because that would mean that he beat an evil invading alien through prayer. Ick.
Posted by: Akusai | December 11, 2006 at 08:33 PM
Ah, but he beat him by prayer in a universe in which prayer can be scientifically shown to be effective. If you were stuck in that universe, you would be expected to make use of Psi and/or prayer if forced to fight an evil invading alien. That's just the way things work over there. Of course, there always does seem to be a non-Psychic nerd along with them, too.
Posted by: Infophile | December 12, 2006 at 05:11 AM
I'm forced to wonder, then, how he ended up here. I'll bet it involves tachyons, though, and quantum theory.
Posted by: Akusai | December 12, 2006 at 06:02 AM
I'm guessing he just tunneled through the boundary between universes.
Posted by: Infophile | December 12, 2006 at 09:39 AM
He had help from that 3rd most powerful mole. In the tunnelling, that is.
Posted by: Bronze Dog | December 12, 2006 at 09:47 AM
oh someone please point me to the evil invading alien defeated through prayer thing. That sounds too hilarious to miss and I seem to have done just that.
Posted by: mouse | December 12, 2006 at 09:53 AM
Pick up a copy of Earthbound for the Super Nintendo. It'll be the final battle, though Paula actually leads on the action itself. (Took me a while to figure out when I played the first time, since I didn't make the connection from Pokey's hint.)
Posted by: Bronze Dog | December 12, 2006 at 12:23 PM
Pokey gives a hint? Shows how much attention I payed to him. I actually ended up discovering that's how you beat him because I ran out of PP and items, so Paula's prayer was the only option I had left (I had stopped using it much earlier in the game when I discovered how useless it generally was).
But that said, no, I'm not named after that Ness!
The name is just shorthand for Nesoo, which I got from reversing Oosen, which in turn came from an MMORPG's random name generator. Not exactly inspiring, I know.
Posted by: Nes | December 12, 2006 at 01:20 PM
I, too, was unaware that Pokey gave a hint. I just whupped him, moved on to Giygas, and fought. And fought. And fought. And tried praying on a lark because I didn't seem to be getting anywhere. But let's not spoil things too much, lest mouse goes and picks up a copy of the game.
But before I go, I have to say that Japan is getting on my last nerve with this "Ha, ha, Americans, we're not going to release Mother 3 in the USA for no apparent reason" nonsense.
Posted by: Akusai | December 12, 2006 at 01:35 PM
Hurray for hijacking threads!
If you don't mind more spoilers...
Thanks to the magic of Youtube, you can see it without having the game. Check these out. I have dialup, so those take forever to load for me so I didn't really watch them, but parts 4 and 5 would probably be the best bet.
Yes, Poo is the default name for the 4th character.
Posted by: Nes | December 12, 2006 at 01:47 PM
But before I go, I have to say that Japan is getting on my last nerve with this "Ha, ha, Americans, we're not going to release Mother 3 in the USA for no apparent reason" nonsense.
I know, that one really pisses me off. Though, to be fair, I think it's the American companies that are making the decision not to translate (probably because they don't believe it will make a profit). There's a fan translation in the works, however, if you're willing to order a Japanese version and have the means to dump it onto your computer (or are somewhat less scrupulous).
Posted by: Infophile | December 12, 2006 at 03:38 PM
"Allison Dubois no help in catching killer"
Reason: same reason why David Cantor was able to assist the police in getting the Yorkshire Ripper - he is a forensic psychologist, and she is not... SND!
Posted by: David N. Andrews (Distinction) | January 14, 2007 at 03:37 AM
Hey "Skeptico" (who shall remain nameless, I suppose)! How are you? I've just read this particular article and some of the comments, but I'll look around a bit more.
I enjoy reading what both sides of the coin have to say (i.e. scientific/realistic vs. spiritual/supernatural). I think it's obvious that both sides (or at least those who claim to be one or the other) have their frauds (or in your case, one side basically doesn't exist).
The only problem with your view/critique concerning these kinds of situations (that is, psychics helping the police) is that it's not only the psychics stating that they've helped the police, but the police themselves as well.
In Allison Dubois' case I'm sure there are some cops who'll tell you she did help. Of course, there are probably some skeptic cops as well.
If the cops really thought she was useless, wouldn't they not ask for help? And by no means is she the only psychic, obviously, that the police claimed that helped them.
And it's not only psychics you should be skeptic about (again, I haven't read your whole blog, so excuse me), but scientists as well. You probably know that scientists before (and now, oddly enough) were against other scientists' ideas. Scientists, too, can be wrong.
Looking around at the technology today would probably seem like the supernatural to scientists of the 19th Century. I think even some people today can't believe what's in front of their eyes.
So, I think that if you should be "Skeptico" you should be skeptic about everything. And poor God, he does get a lot of crap, doesn't he? Even that basic concept can send people to wars or write multiple entries on their blogs. But God, like everything else, means different things to different people. I'd say God for most people is enjoying themselves with science, alcohol, sex and scary movies.
Have a good day.
Sincerely,
John Q.
Posted by: John | February 11, 2007 at 12:31 PM
Skeptico replies to John
Re: If the cops really thought she was useless, wouldn't they not ask for help?
Well, cops can be fooled as well. However, as far as I can tell, the cops didn’t ask for her help here. I’m pretty sure the cops ask for her help rarely if at all, despite what she claims.
Re: And it's not only psychics you should be skeptic about (again, I haven't read your whole blog, so excuse me), but scientists as well. You probably know that scientists before (and now, oddly enough) were against other scientists' ideas. Scientists, too, can be wrong.
Yes I know. That’s why I wrote about the appeal to “science was wrong before” fallacy. Of course scientists are sometimes wrong, but science has proved the most reliable method we know for evaluating claims and figuring out how the universe works.
Re: Looking around at the technology today would probably seem like the supernatural to scientists of the 19th Century.
Indistinguishable from magic – yes. That doesn’t mean that magic is real. This could be considered an appeal to “science doesn’t know everything”. Of course, science doesn’t know everything, but the corollary is not that any idea anyone likes the sound of, that cannot be proven false, is worthy of consideration. Something is only worthy of consideration if there is a reason to suppose it is true.
Re: So, I think that if you should be "Skeptico" you should be skeptic about everything.
Well yes, I try to apply critical thinking to all claims. Sometimes, using critical thinking, you can conclude a claim is true.
Posted by: Skeptico | February 11, 2007 at 12:46 PM
I enjoy reading what both sides of the coin have to say (i.e. scientific/realistic vs. spiritual/supernatural). I think it's obvious that both sides (or at least those who claim to be one or the other) have their frauds (or in your case, one side basically doesn't exist).
It's entirely possible for one side to simply be wrong.
Of course, Skeptico and others point out the obvious: That cops can be fooled (just ask the ones who buy the complex "electronic" dowsing rods and endorse them, making excuses for spectacular failures), which is one reason psychics need to prove themselves under carefully controlled conditions.
Posted by: Bronze Dog | February 11, 2007 at 03:40 PM