Randi’s Million Dollar Challenge

… and the frauds who won’t take it.

James Randi was on Larry King Friday, sparring with “international spiritual medium” Rosemary Altea (transcript). Among other things, Randi asked Altea if she would take his One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge, prompting Altea to regurgitate the usual lame justifications for not taking it. I am reminded of this list of bogus reasons pretend-psychics have for not taking the challenge. Although I’m not going to repeat that whole list, I thought it would be worthwhile to address some of the more common reasons given for not taking the challenge. These are the ones I hear the most:

Claim: The million dollars doesn’t exist (Altea used this one). 

Reality: Yes it does!

Claim: I don’t need a million dollars and/or it doesn’t matter to me what Randi believes (Altea used this one too).

Reality: Don’t tell me you wouldn’t love to win just to rub Randi’s nose in it. If any one of these big name psychics really could do what they claim they can, they’d take it in an instant, and would revel in the publicity and in Randi’s humiliation. And they could give the million to charity if they don’t need it.

No – if you had the powers you claim, you’d take the test.

Claim: Randi can’t say before I apply, what the test will be (Altea implied this as well).

Reality: Each test has to be designed individually – a test for a dowser is different from a test for a psychic, which is different from a test for homeopathy. If there was only one standard test for all applicants, you’d soon complain that the challenge didn’t fit what you can do.

Claim: Randi rigs the test.

Reality: The test is designed so that the applicant is happy with it, and Randi is not involved in running the test. In addition there is no “judging” that would allow Randi (or the applicant) any wiggle room. The result will be clear – it’ll be either a pass or a fail based on the strict criteria agreed in advance.

The truth is that the test is designed to prevent cheating and to eliminate results due simply to chance – and that is the real reason frauds won’t take it.

Claim: The test doesn’t prove or disprove psychic powers anyway.

Reality: I call this the Loyd Auerbach defense. And it’s bogus.

Let’s be clear here – if anyone actually had real psychic powers, they would be able to ace the challenge. The fact that no one has won it, and that the big names are frightened to take it, is not proof that psychic powers don’t exist, but it is starting to be pretty good evidence that they probably don’t.

Changes to the challenge

Randi recently announced some changes to the Challenge, effective April 1, 2007. (There is no doubt some intentional irony in changes to a test of psychics taking place on April Fool’s day.) There are a couple of changes, namely:

First, any applicant will be required to have a media profile. By that, we mean that there must be some media recognition – a television interview, a newspaper account, some press writeup, or a reference in a book, that provides details of the claimed abilities of the applicant. […] The second requirement will be that the applicant must provide an endorsement of an academic nature. That means some sort of validation from an appropriately-qualified academic.

The reason for this change is to cut down on the time taken by Randi’s staff devising tests of little value. For example, Randi says that 80% of applicants are dowsers – and dowsing has been tested and has failed so often now it’s really about time we moved on to something new. In addition, some applications are clearly from people who are deranged or even mentally ill, and there seems little real point in proceeding with people like that. This new rule is designed to focus JREF staff time more productively.

Unfortunately, this new requirement will allow the frauds another excuse not to take the test. But the reality is this is not a valid excuse. Randi has said that a successful test by a local skeptics’ group would qualify – so get a local skeptics’ group to test you first. (Not really difficult – there are many groups who would love to do this.)

Of course, the big names like Sylvia Browne, John Edward and the like would already qualify, so this lame excuse wouldn’t apply to them anyway. (Incidentally, John Edward refused the test on the grounds that he won’t allow himself “to be tested by somebody who’s got an adjective as a first name”. Apart from the fact that this is a really lame excuse, I’m pretty sure that “The Amazing Randi”’s first name is a definite article, not an adjective.)

The other change to the challenge is a little more interesting:

Rather than merely waiting for applicants to present themselves, we will regularly and officially highlight well-known persons in the field and challenge them directly by name. Those challenged will then have a six-month period during which they may respond; during that period the JREF will heavily publicize the fact that such a challenge has been issued, we will issue press releases on the matter, and we will be frequently asking that those challenged make a response. Tentatively, we will begin by formally challenging Uri Geller, James Van Praagh, Sylvia Browne, and John Edward, on April 1st.

Randi goes on to say that the JREF will begin actively pursuing the possibility of legal actions being brought against prominent figures, to investigate whether or not any laws are being broken by false promises and the like. Direct challenges to named individuals, plus legal actions against possible frauds – this is going to be interesting.

Of course, we know the big names who knowingly use trickery, will still avoid the challenge. Just look at Sylvia Browne’s tactics to dodge the challenge, after she had agreed on Larry King over five years ago, that she would take it. But perhaps her continued refusal will start to get more publicity now that the mainstream news media is beginning to catch on.

One final point – there is now an online petition to get Sylvia to take Randi’s challenge. I don’t normally promote online petitions, since they’re generally of little use. Still, I’ll make an exception in this one case, since I think it would be fun to have an additional stick to beat Sylvia and Montel. However, using my own awesome psychic powers, and after consulting my personal spirit guide, I predict Sylvia still won’t take the challenge.

Unfortunately, I doubt this prediction would qualify for the million.

Comments

[Big Al]

Perhaps if this petition is high-profile enough, Sylvia's "customers" will begin to ask her awkward questions. Let's hope so.

[mouse]

I like Randi's changes. As Big Al says, perhaps if enough publicity is garnered the followers of big name psychics will do all the work. Plus it really puts the emphasis where it belongs in terms of proving psychics to be charlatans - on those who claim to be psychic so they can take advantage of others. It's not the small time tarot card readers I really have issues with, it's the John Edwards/Sylvia Brown/Allison Dubois types that really get me.

One thing from my little worldview. Any regular posters who remember me know that I'm not exactly what one would call a full fledged psychic in the typical sense. I harbor the belief in the possibility of some wootype stuff, though I wouldn't say I actively believe in the woo itself. I should point out that I don't believe anyone can talk to the dead, but I wonder about the possibility of some other "ESP" type stuff. Even if it hasn't happened yet, I don't see why it couldn't in the future.

In any case, I've always figured that *if* there are any legitimate ESPers out there, they are probably 1) totally below the radar in terms of the public (say a small town resident or even tribesman in some third world country or whatever) so the media profile wouldn't apply to them and 2) possibly not "in control" of any "gifts" they may have, and therefore unable to perform on demand. Admitedly that's an idea common in fiction on the topic, but I've always thought it plausible.

So I'm wondering how Randi would react to such a person taking the challenge (OK so if there were a psychic tribesman, he'd never even hear of the challenge and it wouldn't matter), given that they don't meet the new critera. Let's say if some random schmoe from a small town were to decide to "prove Randi wrong," as doubtful as that may be, would they have to go get themselves some academic ackowledgement and give a bunch of interviews real fast to qualify, or would Randi be willing to test them if enough "normal folks" from the neighborhood testified to strange events and the like?

I know that I personally would never take the challenge if I thought I were psychic, because I've seen too many bad sci fi movies with government dissections and I'm impressionable like that. =) But then if I were psychic I wouldn't be likely to claim to be one and try to make money off of it. I'd be more likely to use it as a tool (say for preparing for the "surprise" meeting with the boss) instead of an event of itself (pretending to read the future).

[mouse]

Massive typo correction in second paragraph of my (again) overly wordy comment:

"that I'm not exactly what one would call a full fledged psychic in the typical sense."

That should be skeptic not psychic. Dag nabbit.

[sam from psi-corps]

I think I can pass the test. Alright, I'm using my psychic powers and I sense that... wait for it... nanananana.... James Randi isn't going to give me a million bucks.

So, if he doesn't give me the prize, it means that I've won the prize and he has to give it to me. Yes, it's a foolproof plan.

I also see... a fried-chicken sundae...

[Big Al]

Sorry, sam, you completely missed the double-stop Oreos, and I bet you never sent off the postal order to the comic.

You are a fraud, my friend! Prepare to do battle!

Tutta-tutta-tutta-tutta... Duddda-dudda-dudda-dudda...

[Louie]

At the risk of having my head explode, scanners style, I think you should quit watching Montel (which is crap) and watch Maury Povich instead. I like my freaks unpsychic god dammit. Sylvia Browne, you are not the father! ;)

[Big Al]

What's the matter, Louie? Sylvia is an unpsychic freak!

[Rich DeYoung]

On The Randi Foundation's 2005 990 statement, it shows that their investment claim is about 80k short of a million dollars. Not a big deal. Would like to see the 2006 statement.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_c0cQU1U94Zk/Rb9dWOnpBmI/AAAAAAAAAIw/nfoGHbBt0pg/s1600-h/randi_proof.jpg

[Louie]

Ha. Quite right. I meant I prefer the Maury freaks to batty old con artist freaks...yawn...and the way Montel fawns...boring! :)