Skeptico

New Comments Interface

I have just upgraded the comments section to “TypePad Connect”.  The main changes are:

• Threaded Comments – supposedly makes it easier to follow discussions where one person is replying to another, by keeping all such replies in one thread. Edited to add: I have disabled this feature and gone back to a list.  I think the subject of the post is itself enough of a "thread", and that further threading confuses things.  Plus, there is clearly a bug in this as some people (eg me) can't see the "post" key with this option.
• Facility to include a picture or avatar with your comments, if you choose to create an account.  I believe this facility will work with Blogger and other blog services too (ie not just TypePad), although I haven’t tested this yet.
• Edit facility – you can edit and delete your comments after you have posted them.  Looks like you have about five minutes to edit your comment - enough time to fix your html mistakes.

Bug

Unfortunately there is a bug in this new system – clicking the comment link in the "Recent Comments” sidebar takes you to just the post, not the comment.  TypePad confirmed just now that this is a bug and that they will look into it.  If it looks like this will take too long I will probably uninstall the new comment system until it’s fixed.  I’ll update you on progress.  Edited to add: it looks like you can link to new comments made with the new system - just not comments made with the old system.

Apart from that, I’d be interested on your views on the new comment interface.  Does the threaded system work?  Do you prefer this to the old interface?  Let me know what you think.

Formatting Comments

One more thing – I just wrote a page giving some examples of how to format comments in blogs.  The permanent link is in the column on the right under “Skeptico Info”.  Its purpose is to help people do some basic formatting in comments.  Most of you will be familiar with all this already – it is meant for someone completely new to html.  Let me know if you think I missed something, or if something is unclear.

Reduced MMR Equals More Measles

Reduced uptake of the MMR vaccine, fueled no doubt by anti-vaccine propaganda, has resulted in a recent significant increase in Measles in the UK as shown by the graph on the right.  And despite what the anti-vaccine twits will tell you, Measles can be a very serious disease.  According to the CDC:

As many as one out of 20 children with measles gets pneumonia, and about one child in every 1,000 who get measles will develop encephalitis. (This is an inflammation of the brain that can lead to convulsions, and can leave your child deaf or mentally retarded.) For every 1,000 children who get measles, one or two will die from it.

And that last statistic is sadly confirmed in the BBC article:

So far this year, 150 children have been admitted to hospital with complications and one child has died.

One child died.  Compare that with the slight risk of an allergic reaction to the vaccine.  And yet, the BBC reports that only 75% of children in the UK have had both doses of the MMR vaccine, at 12 to 15 months and at four to six years, as recommended.  This reduced uptake of MMR is almost certainly the reason for the current increase in the disease.

That is the result, so far, of the pseudo-scientific scare stories put out by the anti-vaccination loons.  If the uptake of the vaccine does not increase, there will be more deaths.

Hat tip to Jimmy Blue for the story.

Winston Wu Woo Woo

TechSkeptic sent me a link to Winston Wu's supposed Debunking the Arguments of Paranormal Skeptics and Debunkers, asking me if we should consider rebutting it.  I'd seen Wu's piece before and had forgotten about it until TechSkeptic's email.  I knew a comprehensive rebuttal to it had already been written.  The rebuttal didn't come up easily on any web searches though, so I thought it needed publicizing.

Winston Wu's fallacy ridden piece has been on the web for some time now, and it gets no better with re-reading.  Wu was so impressed with himself for writing it that he even turned up on the JREF Forum some years ago to promote himself.  Read the actual thread started by Winston Wu; marvel at how he continues to insist he is winning the argument, long after his ass has been handed to him on a silver platter.

Anyway, the comprehensive rebuttal to Winston Wu (.pdf) was written by Paul Sandoval, and is hosted by Skeptic Report.  It's necessarily long and detailed (as is the piece it rebuts), but it's all there if you have the time.  Sandoval's piece is also a fine example of how to expose logical fallacies in someone else's argument, if you're unfamiliar with the subject.

100th Skeptics' Circle

The 100th Skeptics' Circle is up at Orac's place, including a post by me that I didn't even submit.  How did he know?  He must be psychic. 

Wow - the Skeptics' Circle is 100 years old.  What?  It's every two weeks?  OK well that's still nearly four years - pretty good.

No Way RFK

Several of my fellow skeptical bloggers have been getting worked up about the possibility – rumors really – that Robert F. Kennedy Junior might be chosen by Obama as the next head of the EPA. It’s encouraging to note that most science bloggers who have commented, realize it would be a really bad move to appoint such an anti-vaccine crank with so little understanding of science, to this position. Read what Orac has to say about Robert F. Kennedy Junior if you don’t know the details. In summary, RFK somehow got it into his head that autism is caused by Thimerosal in vaccines. To help confirm this idea, he read the transcripts of a medical conference that was set up to discuss any possible link, to see if he could find evidence of a cover up. Unsurprisingly, he found the confirmation and the evidence of a conspiracy he was looking for. But only by torturing the minutes of the meeting so the attendees appeared to be saying the exact opposite of what they did, actually, say. I read the detailed minutes myself and wrote two posts on RFK’s conspiracy mongering and RFK’s quote mining. You can see from all this that Kennedy first made up his mind about vaccines and then forced the evidence to match his previously made up position. And haven’t we had enough of that over the previous eight years? Yes, RFK would be a terrible choice.

I have to say though, I’m a lot more relaxed about this than most of the other skeptical bloggers. Not because I don’t think RFK would be a terrible choice, but because I don’t actually see Obama picking RFK for this. The reason is that Obama’s decision making seems to be characterized by careful thought and especially by comprehensive vetting of appointees. I just don’t see him making such a mistake. And that is especially so when you read Obama’s Statement in Support of World Autism Awareness Day and Awareness Month, where he states among other things, “while the causes of autism remain a mystery…”. Not to Kennedy. He knows it’s the vaccines.

And with RFK it’s not just anti-vaccine crankery. See this video where RFK talks favorably of Hugo Chavez and the nationalization of oil companies in Venezuela. While I don’t want to get into the argument about whether that is good or bad, you have to admit the nationalization of oil companies is actually socialism, unlike the lame “socialist” things Obama was charged with during the campaign. Just the thought of playing that tape and having to justify those comments at the congressional hearings ought to be enough for Obama’s team to rule out RFK. He really doesn’t want to start all that again.

And the rumors of an RFK appointment don’t even seem that credible. For example see this article that doesn’t even mention the word “Kennedy”. Reports hyping up RFK’s chances are from the likes of The Huffington Post. And we know how reliable they are when the subject has anything to do with vaccines.

So while it’s good to get the word out, again, about RFK’s total unsuitability for such a post, I actually doubt that he’s even on Obama’s shortlist. If I’m wrong, then clearly my opinion of Obama would take a very early nosedive, but I don’t think I’m ready to pre-criticize one of his future decisions just yet.

Skeptics' Circle

Regular Skeptico commenter King of Ferrets is currently hosting the 99th Skeptics' Circle.  Nip on over there to read the best from the skeptical blogs from the last two weeks.

Hindu Buddha Allah, bigger than God

God's own reputation was at stake in yesterday’s presidential election. That’s not my opinion, obviously. It was the opinion of Arnold Conrad, the former pastor of Grace Evangelical Free Church in Davenport, who took it upon himself at a McCain rally a few weeks ago, to warn God of the implications of an Obama win:

There are millions of people around this world praying to their god—whether it’s Hindu, Buddha, Allah—that [John McCain’s] opponent wins, for a variety of reasons. And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they’re going to think that their God is bigger than you, if that happens,

OK, well ignoring for now that Allah is just another name for the God that the Jews, Christians and Muslims all worship, and that Hindu and Buddha are not gods anyway, what can we conclude from last night’s Obama victory? Presumably that the Christian god is smaller than that of the other religions. According to pastor Conrad, anyway. And he should know, being a pastor and all.

Alternatively, prayer has no effect on anything. Perhaps any Christians reading this can tell us which.

I guess we should all be grateful Conrad didn’t call on any really powerful gods. For example Thor, who would have beaten them all with his big Smashum hammer!  Phew - close call!